Definition
Risk assessment in forensic psychology is the systematic estimation of how likely an individual is to commit harmful behaviour — re-offending, violence, sexual offending, self-harm — within a defined time horizon. It supports decisions about bail, sentence length, prison classification, treatment allocation, parole, and post-release supervision.
Three approaches coexist. Unstructured clinical judgement — an experienced clinician forms an impression — is the oldest and the weakest predictor. Actuarial tools use validated statistical models of risk factors with explicit scoring. Structured professional judgement combines empirical risk factors with case-specific clinical reasoning, balancing actuarial discipline with clinical nuance.
Why it matters
Where it shows up
Risk tools include the HCR-20 (violence), Static-99 (sexual offending), VRAG (violence), and LSI-R / LS-CMI (general re-offending). Each combines a structured set of empirically validated items with a scoring protocol; some output a probability band, others a relative risk category.