Concept

Geographic Profiling

Definition

Geographic profiling is a set of statistical techniques that take the locations of an offender's known crimes and estimate the most likely area of their residence or operational base. Developed by Kim Rossmo (CrimeStat, Rigel) and elaborated by David Canter and others, it builds on two robust empirical regularities: most offenders operate within a routine activity space close to home, and the probability of offending at a given location decays with distance from that base.

The technique produces a probability surface — a heat map overlaid on the search area — that investigators can use to prioritise door-to-door enquiries, surveillance, and database searches. It does not name a suspect; it narrows the search.

Why it matters

Where it shows up

Geographic profiling has been used in high-profile serial cases (the South Side Rapist, the DC Snipers, Operation Lynx in the UK) and is now a standard product of investigative-psychology units in several countries. It is also applied in non-criminal contexts — public health (mapping disease outbreaks), wildlife biology (animal home ranges), and counter-insurgency.

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