Multiple Comparisons Fallacy

Claiming that unexpected trends that occur through random chance alone in a data set with a large number of variables are meaningful. In inductive arguments, there is always a chance that the conclusion might be false, despite the truth of the premises.

Examples:

  • _100 independent studies were conducted comparing brain tumor rates of those who use cell phones to those who don’t.

90 of the tests showed no significant difference in the rates.

5 of the tests showed that cell phone users were more than twice as..._

Synonyms: multiple comparisons, multiplicity, multiple testing problem, the look-elsewhere effect