Assuming flawless statistical models apply to situations where they actually don’t. This can result in the over-confidence in probability theory or simply not knowing exactly where it applies as opposed to chaotic situations or situations with external influences too subtle or numerous to predict.
Examples:
- _The best example of this fallacy is presented by the person who coined this term, Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 references, The Black Swan . There are two people:
Dr. John, who is regarded as a man of science and logical thinking.
Fat Tony, who is..._