The hot hand fallacy is the irrational belief that if you win or lose several chance games in a row, you are either “hot” or “cold,” respectively, meaning that the streak is likely to continue and has to do with something other than pure probability. Because we are generally stupid when it comes to realizing this, and pigheaded when it comes to accepting this fact, casinos around the world make a lot of money.
Examples:
- _Marta: (shooting craps) Let’s just cash in now. We did great, but let’s quit while we’re ahead.
Carlos: Forget it! We are hot! Let’s see how long this streak will last!_
Synonyms: hot hand phenomenon