Similar to the conjunction fallacy , the disjunction fallacy occurs when one estimates a disjunctive statement (this or that) to be less probable than at least one of its component statements.
Examples:
- Mr. Pius goes to church every Sunday. He gets most of his information about religion from church and does not really read the Bible too much. Mr. Pius has a figurine of St. Mary at home. Last year, when he went to Rome, he toured the Vatican. From this information, Mr. Pius is more likely to be Catholic than a Catholic or a Muslim.