Point of No Return (Part 4 of 4)

Core idea

The fourth part of Point of No Return continues Caro's accounting of the transit money decision. While the Mass Transportation Research Commission consultants studied whether the Lower Manhattan Expressway should provide rapid transit corridors, Moses began construction on the highway with $20 million in Triborough funds. The construction got under way before the study finished. By the time the consultants reported, the expressway was already physically committed. Moses had used the Triborough surplus to bypass the deliberative process the city had ostensibly set up to govern the transit/highway choice.

Why it matters

Construction continues while the studies churn — Moses funds the Lower Manhattan Expressway with Triborough money before any independent analysis is complete

While the Mass Transportation Research Commission consultants studied whether the Lower Manhattan Expressway should provide rapid transit corridors, Moses began construction on the highway with $20 million in Triborough funds. The construction got under way before the study finished. By the time the consultants reported, the expressway was already physically committed. Moses had used the Triborough surplus to bypass the deliberative process the city had ostensibly set up to govern the transit/highway choice.

The irreversibility deepens

Each year Moses chose highways over transit, the transit alternative became more expensive to build later. Land prices rose; rights-of-way got built over; transit construction became harder. By 1965 the alternative that had cost $700M in 1955 would have cost three or four times that. Irreversibility compounds when alternatives are postponed.

Key takeaways

Mental model

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Practical application

Example

Climate-policy postponement from 1990 to 2020 made the 1990-era $1T solution into a $20T problem. The pattern is consistent with Moses-1952. Postponement of irreversible decisions is itself a choice whose cost compounds.

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